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javier_baez
Javier Baez – Chicago Cubs(Photo courtesy of Bryan Green)

The prospect market in the hobby is teeming right now with spring training in full swing. In doing some research on top prospect lists I came across a great article on “Beyond the Boxscore”(View Here). They broke down all the top 2014 preseason prospect lists(Baseball America,Baseball Prospecus,MLB.com…) and ranked them using a point system. So i thought it would be interesting to see how the consensus list compares to our Cardboard Tracker rankings. Keep in mind our rankings are based on current marketplace popularity. I then took it one step further an added the price ranges for each players 1st Bowman Chrome team affiliated auto to help get perspective on value vs rank. 

The results are pretty interesting in terms of being able to pick up on some market inefficiencies.

Here is some initial takeaways I get after looking at this comparison:

  • Team bias seems to favor heavily in collecting once you get outside the top 20 compared to these lists.(ie: the padres prospects are dead weight)
  • The prospect lists themselves tend to really undervalue/play it safe with last years crop of draft picks in the rankings. Where the hobby is already taking chances. Which could probably be stated for most years.
  • 10 players in the consensus top 50 with auto’s priced under $20 and around 17-20 players have autos on the top 100 list can be had for sub $10
  • And most importantly why haven’t I bought more Gausman.

 

Player Pos Team Consensus
Rank
CT
Rank
Base Bowman
Chrome AU Price
Byron Buxton OF MIN 1 1 $185-205
Xander Bogaerts SS BOS 2 6 $105-120
Oscar Taveras OF STL 3 11 $100-$120
Carlos Correa SS HOU 4 5 $90-$105
Masahiro Tanaka P NYY 5 12 N/A
Javier Baez SS CHC 6 4 $110-$130
Archie Bradley P ARI 7 19 $43-$53
Miguel Sano 3B MIN 8 8 $80-$90
Francisco Lindor SS CLE 8 21 $30-$40
Addison Russell SS OAK 10 26 $65-$75
Taijuan Walker P SEA 11 18 $22-$28
Kris Bryant 3B CHC 12 14 N/A
Gregory Polanco OF PIT 13 9 $47-$53
Jonathan Gray P COL 14 20 $70-80
Noah Syndergaard P NYM 15 15 $60-$65
Kevin Gausman P BAL 16 36 $20-$25
Dylan Bundy P BAL 17 13 $45-$55
Robert Stephenson P CIN 18 72 $25-$32
George Springer OF HOU 19 10 $60-$75
Lucas Giolito P WAS 19 39 $35-$40
Albert Almora OF CHC 21 24 $43-$53
Mark Appel P HOU 22 84 N/A
Jameson Taillon P PIT 23 50 $23-$30
Kyle Zimmer P KAN 24 109 $20-$25
Nick Castellanos OF DET 25 2 $35-$40
Carlos Martinez P STL 26 60 $15-$20
Eddie Butler P COL 27 82 $15-$20
Jose Abreu 1B CHW 28 46 N/A
Austin Hedges C SDP 29 119 $11-$13
Yordano Ventura P KAN 30 43 $12-$17
Travis d’Arnaud C NYM 31 32 $25-$30
Corey Seager SS LAD 32 70 $45-$53
Tyler Glasnow P PIT 33 69 $15-$23
Andrew Heaney P MIA 34 100 $15-$20
Jorge Soler OF CHC 35 29 $50-$55
Raul Mondesi SS KAN 36 51 $25-$32
Clint Frazier OF CLE 37 7 $80-$95
Aaron Sanchez P TOR 38 166 $15-$20
Alex Meyer P MIN 39 96 $13-$18
Jackie Bradley OF BOS 40 25 $38-$48
Maikel Franco 3B PHI 41 79 N/A
Matt Wisler P SDP 42 178 $5-$10
Marcus Stroman P TOR 43 194 $8-$12
Max Fried P SDP 43 205 $10-$15
Joc Pederson OF LAD 45 17 $25-$34
Julio Urias P LAD 46 76 N/A
Austin Meadows OF PIT 47 3 $100-$115
Henry Owens P BOS 48 28 $30-$35
Kyle Crick P SFO 49 62 $20-$25
Lucas Sims P ATL 49 40 $20-$25
Kohl Stewart P MIN 51 33 $20-$25
Rougned Odor 2B TEX 52 88 $20-$25
Billy Hamilton OF CIN 53 16 $33-43
Garin Cecchini 3B BOS 54 55 $28-$34
Mike Foltynewicz P HOU 55 203 $6-10
Jorge Alfaro C TEX 56 37 $15-$20
Colin Moran 3B MIA 57 45 $18-$23
C.J. Edwards P CHC 58 65 $18-$25
Gary Sanchez C NYY 59 139 $20-$26
Kolten Wong 2B STL 60 42 $15-$20
Eduardo Rodriguez P BAL 61 128 $5-$8
Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU 62 66 $10-$15
Erik Johnson P CHW 63 218 $6-$10
Chris Owings SS ARI 64 173 N/A
David Dahl OF COL 65 47 $25-$30
A.J. Cole P WAS 66 188 $5-$8
Blake Swihart C BOS 66 112 $12-$16
Hunter Harvey P BAL 68 48 $14-$18
Braden Shipley P ARI 69 53 $7-$10
Zach Lee P LAD 70 208 $9-$11
Arismendy Alcantara SS CHC 71 85 $12-$16
J.P. Crawford SS PHI 72 54 $10-$15
Jesse Biddle P PHI 73 74 $5-$9
Alen Hanson SS PIT 74 57 $8-$12
Eddie Rosario OF MIN 75 108 $6-$10
Stephen Piscotty OF STL 76 95 $8-$12
Matt Davidson 3B CHW 77 131 $12-$16
Jake Odorizzi P TAM 78 102 $4-$7
Miguel Almonte P KAN 79 131 $7-$11
D.J. Peterson 3B SEA 80 22 $15-$20
Rafael Montero P NYM 81 77 $12-$16
Dominic Smith 1B NYM 82 31 $25-$32
Jake Marisnick OF MIA 83 154 $5-$10
Mookie Betts 2B BOS 84 426 N/A
Reese McGuire C PIT 85 38 $16-$22
Christian Bethancourt C ATL 86 115 $9-$12
Nick Kingham P PIT 87 345 N/A
Jonathan Schoop 3B BAL 88 163 N/A
Matt Barnes P BOS 89 119 $13-$16
Lance McCullers P HOU 90 186 $12-$16
James Paxton P SEA 91 218 $7-$12
Phil Ervin OF CIN 91 30 $15-$20
Hak-Ju Lee SS TAM 93 142 $5-$8
Allen Webster P BOS 94 156 $7-$12
Rosell Herrera SS COL 95 291 N/A
Trevor Bauer P CLE 96 67 $15-$20
Taylor Guerrieri P TAM 97 285 $7-$12
Brian Goodwin OF WAS 98 181 $5-$9
Pierce Johnson P CHC 99 215 N/A
Josh Bell OF PIT 100 116 $18-$25

 

Here are the top five hobby favorites in our rankings that didn’t make the consensus top 100.